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submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/v7euqcxrgt441.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9761857f64d85a70bb8e4212a7ddcb3ce56edc68 Monday Recap Singles: 0-1 (-2.9u) Not the best result here, haha. Alshon went down early and Tate got 6 targets but only converted one into a catch. Parlay: 0-1 (-2u) Little rough here. Had NYG ml and was cruising the whole game. Giants D no bueno BBDLS: 0-0 (0u) SBBDLS: 0-0 (0u) Teasers: 0-0 (0u) Sunday Games Tampa Bay at Detriot (+3.5/+6): This one is all over the place. I am seeing spreads as low as 3.5 and as high as 6. It's a little curious to me. Yea, DET is starting a backup QB that has struggled a little going 0-2 so far. And yea, DET is 28th in sac rate, last in QB hit rate with a horrible secondary and nothing to play for this season playoff wise. And yes TB has been on fire recently going 3-0 and scoring and average of 30 ppg in their last 3... All of these signs point to backing TB...However, TB has the second-worst pass and scoring defense in football and Blough has shown the ability to get the ball to Galloday. Along with Evans and Winston appearing on the injury report, the Buccaneers could also be down linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul and receiver Scotty Miller. You would think this is going to be a shootout given both teams poor secondary and ability to big play throw to their WR1s. However, there appears to be some RLM on the total with over 75% of bets on the over, but the total dropping from 47.5 to 45.5. Very curious! I know it would hurt the DET draft stock, but I feel this is a prime spot for Blough to get his first NFL start/win. I was going to load up on props this game thinking it would be a shoot out, but the RLM has me worried in that department, so I will probably limit my exposure on this game. There are plenty of better spot this weekend. Extra Note: TB has gone 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games as a road favorite... Philadelphia at Washington (+5.5/+6): Well, I am kinda mad at PHL for that comeback on Monday night. :P Speaking of Monday night, Philly is playing on a short week and has injuries to half the team. Alshon is done for the season, Aghalor is Questionable, Howard had to come out of the Monday night game due to cramping. This is a clear low scoring spot so looking at props is questionable. The total has dropped almost 2 points but not though any key numbers yet from 40.5 down to 38.5. The next big number is 37. Honestly this is a crapshoot of a game. Philly is still playing for a playoff spot but they just have such a limited offence to work with. With the limited receiving core (essentially the two TEs) the algo favors the under on the PHL team total of 23.5. Also, it's hard not to look at the home dog catching almost a TD in a game with such a low total... Chicago at Green Bay (-4/-5): Here is a game that could have some serious playoff implications. Chicago is trying to win out just to have a hope that the right teams win and lose for them to make it in. GB is now playing for playoff seating. On a neutral field, I would definitely be favoring the Bears here. However, GB at home is a totally different team. They are 2nd in ypp at home vs. 31st on the road take that stat and add it with CHI has only covered one spread OTR this season...makes it a scary look for CHI. However, the GB defense is one of the worst for how good their record is, conversely, the CHI defense is much better than it's record dictates and the CHI offense looks much better chemistry wise than they did in the first half of the season. As you can tell, my model is leaning CHI here and there is RLM to support. Currently the about 55/60% of the bets are on GB, however the line has moved from an open as high as -7 down to as low as currently -4. Extra Note: Bears: 7-0 SU and ATS when both teams are coming off a home game, and 5-0 SU and ATS in division games with QB Mitchell Tribusky when Chicago owns a winning record … Packers: 1-6 ATS in Last Home Games in division games when coming off a non-division game New England at Cincinnati (+10): We're on to Cincinnati... A week ago, when we were filming there sideline signals... In all fairness does anyone think NE would actually NEEED the Bengals signals to beat them... They came out as a 10 point road favorite! I dont get this one and honestly it feels like media bias to have something to talk about for a week and to blame when the Patriots win another Superbowl. There is some cause to be weary of this spread. Edleman is questionable but I just don't see enough to warrant a stay away. Here's an extra stat found for the Patriots: "The Pats are 41-17 ATS off a loss... and have been money in the bank for bettors in this spot for years as well, going 13-2 ATS in their last 15 vs. teams with losing records (which includes going 4-0 ATS this season) and a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three after having lost two out of their last three SU. The Bengals on the other hand are a money-burning 8-13 ATS in their last 21 at home, including 1-4 already this season." Houston at Tennessee(-3): This line moved quick! It opened as low as -1 but as soon as HOU fell on their face last week and TEN beat OAK, this spread quickly moved to -3. A justified move imo as since the RT insertion, TEN has been the number one offence in the league. They have also tripled their no huddle rate for a more uptempo offense. They will be facing a HOU D that has, quite frankly, SUCKED since JJ watt got hurt. The model likes a lot of Henry in this one (Not surprising he is the KEY to the TEN offense) combined with a ton of PA Passing for TEN going for big plays. The model favor's TEN but as the spread climbs higher it looks like a weaker play. Seattle at Carolina(+6): This is one of the harder games for me to cap this week. On the one hand, its a west coast team traveling East for a 1pm game. On the other hand, its the Seahawks doing it and RW has a great track record in these games. Also, it looks like the Carolina defense is giving up... in their last 5 games, teams have scored on more than half of possessions vs CAR. Penny is out, but Carson is back and ready to go against one of the leagues worst defenses vs the run. On the other side we have CMC who is also facing a shotty defense. I do think this is a potential upset spot. Any time I see a home team plus 6, it always red flags a teaser breaker, however with the "destiny run" that Wilson is on this year I would say the chances are lower than a regular spot. Denver at Kansas City (-10): Another one I am really torn on. KC has beat DEN last 7 times SU and ATS. However, we are still uncertain of the health of PMs hand. He looked great in the first half of the NE game, but then just stopped doing anything in the second half. Overall, he started the season with an 18-1 TD/INT ratio, but since returning from injury has a ratio of 3-2. Also, the DEN pass D is pretty good and has Lock on the other side of the ball playing with high confidence, starting his career 2-0. Don't get me wrong, its totally possible KC wins this game 27-13 or 31-20, something like that...but with the total dropping from an average 47 open to 44.5 now and the spread dropping from 13.5 down to 9.5/10, I think there is still value on Denver. KC will be playing as hard as they can as there is still a chance at the two seed. Still, as I stated, the model is leaning DEN and the points here. Miami at New York Giants (-3.5): Not much to say here. Both defense are shit. Eli's last home game for NY and most likely his last chance to end with a .500 W/L record. I'm gonna just go with the Manning conspiracy and say that the Manning family had a hand in Parker getting his contract extension, he will sit or play poorly, and Eli will get a great game send off at home. No stats. Fade if you dont like conspiracy theories. XD Jacksonville at Oakland (-6.5): Another big line movement. Opened at 4.5, is up to mostly 6.5. Last week the Jaguars, (31st) in run D, lost their best linebacker and leading tackler in Myles Jack. This week they lost another linebacker in Quincy Williams who is the fourth linebacker that Jacksonville has lost this season. This Sunday should be a great day for Josh Jacobs who only needs 246 yards to break Saquan's rookie-of-the-year mark of 1,307 yards. Even if Jacobs is hurt, DeAndre Washington, who filled in nicely last week, will get the chance to carve up the Jaguars. I do think that this is a good look for the over. Both defenses suck the only deterrent here is DJ Chark the shark might be out for this one, hurting JAX chances at keeping up. Cleveland at Arizona (+3): This is another curious spot for me. The Browns are pretty much done for the season in regards to playoff chances. Theoretically they could win out but like the Bears they would need a ton of help, and a win over the Ravens. They do face an ARZ team that is horrible against the pass and has been a money loser for most of the season at home. The algo doesn't have a definite lean here, but as the points rise, the AZ ml looks tempting. This game also has the potential for a big props game as CLE has very good WCB match ups. Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5): Some Serious RLM in this one. Almost 70% of bets on MIN yet the line has gone from a -3 open to -1/-1.5 in most spots. This is actually really weird. MIN has almost everyone healthy again, Theilin, Diggs...both back. LAC stadium as we know has almost no HFA...w.t.f. Also, this game missed out on the flex to the night game which went to BUF/PIT... Can you say, " The fix is in" All statistics point to MIN picking up an easy win. Then why is the line dropping? Well, lets dive deeper into the stats...
One last piece of information that makes the Chargers one of the BEST SPOTS TO TEASE this week :
Atlanta at San Francisco (-10.5): The 49ers played a spectacular game last week to get a win over the Saints. This puts them in the hunt to get the top seed in the NFC. However, their injury list is growing at a fast rate at the wrong time. They’re missing bodies at receiver, on the defensive line, on the offensive line (starting center Weston Richburg on IR) and in the secondary, where Richard Sherman, K’Waun Williams, and safety Jaquiski Tartt are out or questionable heading into Sunday. Since the bye week, Atlanta is 3-2 SU and ATS after 1-7 start. With all the injuries to SF here, I can easily see a backdoor cover from ATL. Hell, San Fran's final two games of the season are against divisional opponents (SEA and LAR) they might get caught resting and looking here and be in line for a surprise upset! XD LA Rams at Dallas (+1): How did this game not get flexed into the night spot...? Is it because Philly is going to lose to Washington and this game means nothing for Dallas? I can't imagine if Philly gets a win here that Jerry Jones wouldn't want Americas team to not be in the spotlight when they are playing for a playoff chance... Anyway, almost 80% of the tickets are on the Rams, and the line has moved heavily from -4 Dallas to -1/1.5 LAR. If the Rams win out, they can almost control their destiny with a 96% chance of making the playoffs. There defense is better. Vander esch is still out for Dallas but Sean Lee may be good to go in this one. The Rams have been trying to get back to basics with Gurley over the last few weeks, and the Cowboys have been gashed in the run game so look for LA to continue with that strategy. Depending on how well Dak can move the ball against this Rams D, this game has the potential for a high scoring affair. The only thing that really worries me is with 80% of the tickets on LA and the line has yet to get up to -3, it looks as if the books dont want to give Dallas too many points. Maybe Dallas is actually the play here? Honestly, I think the best spot in this one is another teaser. The over looks prime and either side teased above 6/7 looks very attractive. Buffalo at Pittsburgh (-1): Finally we get to the game that the NFL decided to flex into Sunday Primetime. Currently 70-80% of bets are on Buffalo and the spread has moved from 2.5 down to 1, but that isn't through any key numbers. Both teams have been great defensively and PIT sees the return of their starting RB. This has the makings of a tough, low scoring, grind it out type game. We say this every week it seems, but it's going to be a big test for Josh Allen to see if the Bills are truly a playoff contender or just had an easy schedule. So far he has done well winning 5 of 6 on the road this season with 3 of their 4 highest scoring games OTR. However, they will be facing a Steeler D that has been legit since the add of Fitzpatrick. Over the last 4 games(all wins) the Steelers are giving up only 16 ppg. Again, this game looks good for a tease. Both sides too in a low scoring grind it out game that looks to be decided by 1 score or less. Singles 110-110-3 (+22.13u)
This is a separate box I am making for Borgata online bets. They decided to give me 10u for no reason. The only downside is they have a 6x rollover before I can take the winnings. Because of this I will try for parlays to hit more then 6x the bonus. None of the losses count against us, and none of the winnings count for us until I have rolled over 6x. Borgata Online
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-12 (-14.04u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-12 (-6u)
Thanks for reading. Good luck to all! :D |
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/b88yp5srv9z31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=40ca6e2ece3b36c915e55bf033c2c18ebab3ff4f Thursday Night Recap Singles: 2-2 (-0.02u) Soooo close! Personally I think the OBJ conspiracy was real. He had 10 targets (the most) and almost scored the first TD on their first drive. Not only did his TD get reviewed and overturned but soon after, Juju was taken out of the game. On to the next one! Parlay: 0-0 (0u) None BBDLS: 0-0 (0u) Nothing of note here. We put in a free bet and it is still live, but there are much harder games to clear on this one. Lets ride the wave! SBBDLS: 0-0 (0u) None Teasers: 0-0 (0u) None Sunday Games Dallas @ Detroit (-7): This weeks games opens up with a 1pm slate of games that are dooseys. Almost every one of these games feels like the favorite should win but they all have a reasonable percentage of underdog upsets. With Stafford playing the algo predicts this one 27-24 Dallas. But with no Stafford this game is going to rely on the Lions D and their backup QB. The Lions run d allows 4.6 ypc (22nd) and 130 ypg (26th). While their pass D averages giving up 272 ypg (27th) and a 100 passer rating (23rd). The Cowboys passing offense is 3rd in ypg, 4th in ypc, and 1st in ypa 1st. Last week Zeek had a horrible game vs min going 20 rushes for only 47 yards at 2.4 ypc... but he is still top 10 in rush yards with 78 per game. Some interesting stats to go with the Dallas run game:
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5): Just as the Dallas game, this game looks like it should be a win for the favorite just based upon the offense for the favorite vs the defense of the dog. However, there are definitely scenarios that have Tampa Bay coming away with an upset. The algo has this one as NO -2. Curiously it look-ahead around -7 and has moved down to settle in around 5. This is probably due to the fact the Saints were embarrassed last week by the Falcons. They came out of the bye with 0 energy and the Falcons took advantage. TB was able to pull through last week despite losing the turnover battle and trailing in the fourth. Tampa Bay's ability to protect the ball on offense and force a turnover on defense will be the key for a victory. "They’re 2-12 in games with 0 takeaways. When they force a takeaway, they’re 22-27. When they record exactly one takeaway, they’re 5-16. When they record exactly two, they’re 5-10. Three, as it turns out, is the magic number. When they record at least three, they’re 12-1. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, New Orleans almost never commits three turnovers in a game. In fact, the Saints haven’t done so since 2017, and they haven’t committed two in any game this season." Uncharacteristically, Brees was sacked 6 times last week. Now he is going against Shaquile Barret this week who has 11.5 sacks (1st). The Saints do have Kamara back, but the TB rush D is tops allowing only 78 ypg (1st) and 3.4 ypc (3rd). Brees will likely look to the air as Thomas is on fire, averaging over 100 ypg, and the Tampa Bay pass D ranks bottom of the league giving up an average 299 ypg (league worst) and an average 100 passer rating (24th). In terms of injuries, almost everyone is a go. The only notable injury is Saints Marshon Lattimore. He has been ruled out and this should really add to the TB abuse of the deep ball. The algo does favor the Saints to win, but I don't think I can lay the points on this one. Fun Fact: NFC South foes Tampa Bay and New Orleans have split their annual series every season since Jameis Winston entered the NFL. NO won the first meeting. Atlanta at Carolina (-5): My algo has this coming out at Carolina -7. I understand the movement as Atlanta got a huge upset last Sunday and Carolina lost by 2 inches. Before we jump into the stats, I think the most important information for this game is Carolina’s starting tackles, Dennis Daley and Greg Little are both questionable for the game. If they play, I see Kyle Allen having time to throw, CMC having holes to run through, and little resistance from an ATL secondary that ranks near the bottom in everything. However, if those tackles are out, ATL may be able to repeat last weeks performance (6 sacks and 11 QB hits) and give themselves opportunity at another big divisional upset. Other injuries to note: The Falcons will be without tight end Austin Hooper, their receptions (56) and receiving touchdown (six) leader who is out with an MCL sprain. The Panthers will be without defensive back Ross Cockrell (quad), who has played a big role in a variety of positions in the secondary. But, for the Panthers, cornerback James Bradberry back. I am leaning towards Carolina here and while the focus will be on CMC, I think the edge can be found with the WR's in this one. Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-2.5): Whoa. Two completely different QBs than the previous week for both teams. It looks as if Brissett is back for the Colts, and after 9 weeks with no BDN, Nick Foals returns. My algo has this game at 22-22 with some HFA to be added in for Indy. This looks like what Vegas got too because they made the spread -3 (hfa on a pk) and the total around 44. Looks like they don't know how to handle the QB change and decided to let the market dictate the price. The Jags are coming off a bye and see the return of wide receiver Dede Westbrook (neck), cornerback D.J. Hayden (neck) and linebacker Quincy Williams (hamstring). Both teams have rush defenses that rank in the bottom of the league, but on the flip side, both teams have rushing offenses that are pretty good. With Jax having the clear edge here. A key stat to note for the Jax rush defense is they are 4-0 when holding opponents under 100 yards rushing...but they are 0-5 when they dont. Without TY Hilton again this week to help stretch the field, I feel like JAX will be able to stack the box and keep the rush yards for IND to a minimum. Denver at Minnesota (-10): This is another game where I dont think Vegas knows how to cap it. My algo came out with 15-25 MIN. They Vegas spread is -10 with a total of 40. It seems they know the public will like MIN just seeing them come off a win on prime time. As you have probably guessed, my gut leans DEN as I took them on Thursday in my BBDLS parlay. Let's look into the game to see what else is going on. First, we see Denver coming off a bye. Yet another QB named with the last name Allen hopped into the NFL, replacing the injured Joe Flacco and he was 12-of-20 passing for 193 yards and two touchdowns while beating the Cleveland Browns in his first career start. Then, he went into a bye week, giving him double time to get in sync with the plays and the receivers. You know what, there are stats that say the Vikings offense is legit, and the Broncos D is legit. They both have decent running games and run defenses. I'd say the key here is if Min can pressure the young QB. If they can...its a wrap. If they can't? I see Denver with an easy cover and possibly an upset. NY Jets at Washington (-2.5) This is a curious coin flip of two bottom of the barrel teams this year. The Jets are coming of a win and the Redskins are coming off a bye. This feels like an under game. My algo has this at 20-20 but there is no adjustment for Haskins yet. He has had an extra week to prepare, but the Redskins tend to rely on AP to generate some running game. He will be going against a Jets run D that is L.E.G.I.T. giving up only 3ypc (best in the league) and 82 ypg (2nd). The Redskins run game will an added boost in Guice who will be returning. Honestly, all the numbers lean Jets favor. However... everywhere I look 70-75% of the bets are on the Jets...and the number keeps pushing in their favor. This is usually a big red flag to take the opposite of the majority! Buffalo at Miami (+6.5): My algo has this 22-20 Buffalo. This is an interesting rematch of a divisional battle. This time though Frank Gore will be returning home to battle his old team in front of his family. Also Jordan Phillips, Bills defensive tackle is returning to where he was originally drafted. He is having a monster year, so watch out! Looking at the Bills offense, it has been pretty mediocre. However, it will be facing a Dolphins defense that ranks bottom in almost everything. ( 31st in points allowed, 29th in total yards, and 30th in sacks per attempt ) Im sure the Bills would like to see their RBs get it going in this match up, but the MIA run d hasn't been that bad. If you take out the games against Baltimore and Dallas (they gave up 500 rush yards in those two combined) then they only averaging giving up 116 per game. If they can hold Buffalo under 100 yards, the potential for an upset exists. The Bills have only ONE win in the 14 games where they failed to rush for at least 100 yards since Sean McDermott took over as coach. They had only 84 last week in Cleveland. Houston at Baltimore (-4.5): Oooo, this is probably going to be my favorite game of the 1pms. I rarely watch the games, but I am excited to see these teams match up. My algo has this game Bal -4.5. Lining right up with the Vegas spread. Will Fuller has been ruled out for HOU. I dont have analysis for this because Baltimore should be leading in most if not all categories. But I am going to give my gut play here and its ride with the Texans. No analysis, just gut. Arizona at San Fransico (-9.5) Another divisional rematch. This one is interesting because it has seen a pretty big line movement. It opened in most places as high as -14. But has moved to settle around 9.5/10. My algo actually has this as SF -12.5, however that doesn't account for any injuries...of which the 49ers seem to have in spades. The Niners will be without running back Matt Breida, Joe Staley, and kicker Robbie Gould. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair has been ruled out as he has not cleared the concussion protocol. Defensive lineman D.J. Jones has a groin injury that will sideline him this week. Emmanuel Sanders is hurt but looks to play and Kittle is listed as doubtful but who knows, we saw him dominate the last game vs AZ after his knee got reversed. Honestly, almost every article I read said the same thing. 49ers are mad injured, played 5 quarters on Monday and lost, and now play a divisional opponent on a short week that they only beat by 3 points just 2 weeks ago, bet the Cards to cover and possibly upset. That was my original train of thought too. Then I looked at the public betting percentages. Everywhere you look, 2 out of 3 spread tickets are on the Cards with some places over 70%. Yet the line has had a ton of trouble breaking 10 and with all that love for AZ you'd think it would drop to 7.5/8.5. Because of this, it appears the edge may actually be with the home team to win a blowout. Should be interesting to see what happens! New England @ Philadelphia (+4.5): An interesting match up here. My algo has this 24-21 NE. Both teams are coming off a bye with limited injuries. The Pats will be without safety Chung, and the Eagles will be without darren sproles, alshon jeffery and deshean jackson. Jordan Mathews is questionable, but Ajayi was signed his week to help with RB depth. What makes this pick really hard is even with all these injuries to the Eagles and Bellichek's after a bye win percentage, AND 80% of the picks being on NE...the line has only moved a point, a point and a half a most. How big are the bets on the Eagles right now to keep the line from ballooning? The Eagles run d is legit, but their secondary is still crap. The Pats D was exposed last week but that was vs an MVP caliber QB lead offense. How has this line not moved?! I want to bet the Pats so bad, but there is this thread pulling at me to take the Eagles. Choose with care here boys. Cincinatti @ Oakland (-11.5): There isn't much to say here. Cincy is winless and starting a backup QB that was destroyed last week. Oakland has some energy. They fought through a grueling road schedule and now get some rest at home. But, 11.5 points for an OAK team this year just seems like too much. And 11.5 for a cincy team with a back up QB on the road when he just lost by 40 at home...cant do it. The algo has this 24-18 OAK but thats not adjusted for the new QB. Honestly I dont have an adjustment for him because I dont know who he is! I am riding OAK to win in some parlays but points are tough. Knock on wood if you're with me. :D Chicago @ LA Rams(-6): Last game of the day. Prime time NFC match up. While both of these teams are technically still live for a wild card spot, I don't think either will realistically make it. The Rams have a shot if they can win here AND win vs Dallas and Seattle but honestly I dont see that happening this year. Crazy enough, my algo has this game 21-20 Bears... I think if Montgomery is a go for CHI this game is much tighter. But if he sits, I dont see the offense for the Bears having as much rhythm. Monday Night Kansas City vs LA Chargers (+4): I dont normally add the Monday game into these write ups, but since I will have this team in my parlays and teasers, I decided to add it. I am betting this for only one piece of info I heard. (My algo actually likes the opposite side here) This game is in Mexico City. The elevation there is higher than Denver. The Chargers spent all week practicing in Denver to get their bodies acclimated to the elevation. Kansas City has stayed home. With as bad as the KC defense is, the elevation factor, and 4 points...I will be siding with old man Rivers to 2nd half comeback and cover. (and possibly win!) Note: We have approx 17u in Bonus money from Refer-A-Friend Bonus. Also, Borgata Sportsbook emailed me this week and offered me 10u in free bets just because I made an account there a year ago and never played. Unlike alllll the other sites in NJ, it does have a rollover. It is 6x, so I will use these free bets on only parlays that way if I hit one, I will have extra funds to hit the rollover without playing it for many weeks. Going really basic this week. Mostly spreads. Singles 73-72-2 (+26.78u)
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