I tried using profitsquad's calculator but it's not working at the moment.
I'm doing Casino2020 deposit offer and wondering if it's worth it. It has a 100% match bonus up to £100, with an RTP of 96% and low variance with a bet size of £0.40.
Since it's a sticky bonus I assume it doesn't follow the normal formula for calculating EV as you need to put in a profit target but I don't really understand what that is nor how to use it to actually calculate the EV.
submitted by So for 777bet if I deposit £20 I get £115 Freeplay subject to 30x wagering. Let's say the best RTP I could get was 96%. If I were to wager on a slot, would it come out of my Freeplay first or would I need to wager my £20? On the Ts & Cs, it just says to deposit and wager the bonus but I'm a little skeptical as that would surely be a huge loss to 777bet?
submitted by Right now Ignition is offering a 300% bonus for BTC deposits. 150% in the casino and 150% in poker. The poker bonus is equal to 50% rakeback for unlocking.
Is Ignition's Casino Bonus worth going for?
Let's assume you play blackjack to minimize house edge. Assume house edge = 0.50% and you're proficient with basic strategy.
The casino bonus seems very marginal though as they require a 25x play through of both the bonus and initial deposit. If I'm understanding things correctly, for blackjack you have to playthrough the bonus money 10x as only 10% of a wager counts towards rollover of the bonus.
So first you'll need to meet $15,000 coin in on blackjack which has an expected loss of $75.
Then according to the 25x play requirements they only treat blackjack at 30%. You'll need to play though $2,500 25 times with 30% credit which works out to be $208,333 coin in. This has a total expected loss of $1,041.
We're now at a total expected loss of $1,116 with an expected profit to be $384.
What about the time it takes to play blackjack? We need to play $223,333 total in bets.
Well, we could minimize our variance by betting $1/hand. Assuming 200 hands an hour that'd be 1,116 hours. Using a session bankroll calculator we can go up to $25 for our initial bet with an acceptable risk of ruin being under 10%. We're down to 44 hours of play time to make $384 in profit or $8.72/hr. Going any higher risks substantial variance.
Is my understanding of Ignition's signup bonus correct?
Is the casino bonus worth the effort at all?
Do any of the tricks I read about on Ignition still work for clearing the bonus? I read that ignition uses your deposit first before the bonus amount. Does it still work if you sit down in a poker cash game with your entire deposit so you can only gamble the bonus money? If so do you have to actually play or can you sit out? Is it a good idea to play a bit as cover?
In practice I can't imagine playing for 44 hours of blackjack while afk at a high limit cash game to roll through the bonus. Please correct me if I made any mistakes in my understanding. To me it seems reasonable they calculated out the EV to make it hard and almost unattractive to advantage players.
submitted by Previous:
Inside Underground NY Poker #2
Spades — 1.2 Every poker player knows that feeling —when you get the itch to play. I had just made $200 for dealing the bar poker league tournament. My girlfriend, Jennifer, was surely sleeping, and here I had Gary telling me to come down to play with $100 bonus. Surely, this had to be +EV. I was about to scratch that itch.
Being cognizant of the rake now, I text Gary back, asking him what the rake is and he replies, telling me it’s 10% up to $10. This sounded pretty reasonable to me, but I wanted some confirmation. Back in 2007, texting had not yet become the preferred medium of communication and although it was popular, a phone call was more often used. I decided to give Andy a call. No answer. I immediately received a text back, telling me that he’ll call me back in a minute.
I was driving on the Long Island Expressway and was a bit tired. I often stayed up late anyway, and was not much of a morning person. It was already late at night, so I decided to take an exit that had a gas station nearby. I pulled into a Valero, went inside, and purchased a sugar-free Monster energy drink. As I was walking back to my car, my phone rang — it was Andy.
“What’s up, buddy? I’m in the middle of a session, try and make it quick.”
“Hey man, I’m about to go play cards at this new spot. The rake is 10% up to $10, stakes are $1/$2 NL. Is this good?”
“That’s incredibly good. The lowest I’ve ever heard of, in fact. Where is this place?”
“It’s in Long Island, it’s a club called Spades.”
“I’ve heard about Spades. I didn’t know the rake was that low, though. Do you have to pay time, too?”
“I dunno. I just got an invite from another dealer I met while dealing a bar league tournament. He also offered me a $100 bonus for being a new player. That’s all I know.”
“New player bonus too, huh? Sounds very enticing. I might have to come by with you and play one of these days. Good luck, buddy. Let me know how it goes.”
I asked Andy how his session was going and we talked for a few more minutes.
“I’ve gotta go, I have to get back to the table. Word of advice — the first time I ever play in a new game, I’m never there to really play. I suggest that if you go, buy in for the average stack size and don’t rebuy if you get felted.”
“Why?” — Being the inquisitive type, I always asked questions.
“You need to make sure the game is clean. Watch the rake and keep track of the pot size. Play super tight. Cash out and leave if you don’t feel safe or if any of the players seem too problematic.”
“Thanks, man. Good luck in your sesh, I’ll see you soon.”
“You too buddy, gimme a call afterwards and let me know how it goes.”
With Andy’s input, I made the decision to text Gary back and give the place a shot. He texted me the address with some directions, and some instructions on how to get inside.
I was horrific with directions, though. I had purchased a Garmin GPS unit from Best Buy when I had bought my car, knowing that I would need it to get to Fox’s. I wasn’t familiar at all with Queens or Suffolk County. It was about the size of a small cantaloupe and stuck to the windshield using a suction cup. It was slow calculating directions, but it was accurate and always got me where I needed to go. I punched in the address that Gary had given me on the insensitive touch screen, and waited for it to start navigating.
20 minutes or so later, I had arrived. The GPS had brought me to large Chinese restaurant that had certainly closed for the night. It was located on a main road and was in a multi-story building with other retail stores in the same unit. I sent Gary a text, letting him know that I was there and he told me to pull into the back of the building to park.
I put my car into park and exited the vehicle. The instructions in the text Gary had provided me with directed me to ring the bell on the door that had a security camera with a red light on. I started walking up to the building and saw only one door with an active security camera. The lights were off, but the back parking lot had at least 15 cars sitting there, so I knew the game had to be going. I rang the bell and waited. Two minutes later, I see a guy who looked to be in his mid-twenties, approaching from the inside and the glass door opens.
“Can I help you?”
“Yeah, Gary sent me. We met at the bar poker league earlier tonight.”
“Come on in, follow me.”
I entered the building and walked up a flight of stairs to be met with, sure enough, a steel door with a security camera mounted to the top right corner. The guy gave it a knock and 15 seconds later it was opened.
As I walked inside, I took notice of the place. There was one main room, which was quite large, that housed two tables, the podium, and a tall Craftsman locking toolbox. On either side of the main room, there was a short hallway that led to another room which also had two tables inside. Both of the other rooms had a plexiglass sheet on the wall, which made it possible to see what was going on inside.
A rather tall, very muscular guy, waves me over to the podium.
“What’s up, mo? Who sent you, James?”
Not realizing it at the time, this was a simple test. He wanted to make sure I wasn’t lying about who had invited me.
“No, Gary sent me. I met him at the bar poker league tonight. He told me to come down to play and that there was a $100 new player bonus?”
“Gotcha. Sure. You get the $100 after two hours of play at the table. The game’s full right now, but you’re first up. Have a seat over there and make yourself comfortable. Drinks and snacks are in the back, the bathroom and smoking room are down the right hall. Let me get your name and number so I can put you on the text list.”
I give him my number and we exchanged names. Vinny was a tall and muscular gentleman who looked to be in his 40’s. He appeared to be very physically fit with slicked back, jet black hair. He clearly filled the role of both floorman and security. His personality was very direct and he looked you dead in the eyes when he spoke to you.
With my stomach growling and heart pumping from the Monster I had drank a little while earlier, I walk into the back to take a leak and grab a snack. I hadn’t eaten anything all night, the bar league didn’t provide any food. Only two options were available, individual bags of Wise chips or Famous Amos cookies. I opt for the cookies and head back into the main room, hovering over the full table to watch the action as I munch on my bag of processed carbs.
A couple of hands go by, and I could tell that my hovering over the table was making a few of the players uncomfortable. I was new, nobody knew me, and I didn’t want to be impolite so I took a seat at the empty table and waited for an open seat.
About a half hour passes and Vinny calls me for the open seat. He asks me how much I want and I tell him $200. He unlocks a tall, Craftsman toolbox and opens one of the drawers to reveal racks of chips inside. He hands me a rack with $200 in chips, and I sit down at the table to be greeted by the dealer.
“Welcome to the game. Would you like to post or wait for the big blind?”
“Thanks. I’ll wait for the big blind.”
Half a rotation later and I’m in the game. I took Andy’s advice and played super tight. 45 minutes go by and I open my first hand — pocket tens. I get no action, which I was not expecting. I drag in the blinds and toss the dealer a buck, not wanting to appear cheap so that I’m welcomed back.
There’s some chatter going on at the table in between hands, but no conversations that interest me. I’m starting to get bored. Music was playing in the background, and a song comes on that catches my ear.
“Anyone know what song this is?”
The player seated to my right answers me, an older Italian man who was very short in stature with a high-pitched voice and thick Brooklyn accent.
“Trooper With an Attitude, by 38 Special.”
“Thanks. You know you kind of remind me of Joe Pesci? Anyone ever tell you that?”
The room went dead silent, all that could be heard was the song playing in the background. The action came to a halt.
For what seemed like an eternity, everybody at the table was staring at me. I could tell by the Italian guy’s reaction that I had made a fatal mistake. Foot — meet mouth.
The Italian guy puts his hand on my shoulder, and with a firm grip, turns his chair, almost using my shoulder as a pivot point. He gives me a death stare, and finally the silence is broken.
“Watch your mouth, kid.”
I realized that he had taken extreme offense to my comment. I didn’t understand why, I had meant it as a compliment. I had recently seen the movie “Casino” for the first time and loved Joe Pesci’s performance. Regardless, the table was perceiving me as being in the wrong.
“I apologize. Won’t happen again.”
The action resumes and the Italian guy takes his hand off of my shoulder. I later learned that this guy was extremely connected and to never make him feel as if he was being disrespected. Evidently, his short stature and high-pitched voice made him feel insecure — it was not something to ever be pointed out.
A few more orbits go by, and I look at my stack. I’m down about $60. I hadn’t played any meaningful hands and I was card-dead. I had seen multiple players show down hands like Ace high or bottom pair for the winner, and came to the realization that I was highly outmatched. Most of the players at the table were really solid. They were constantly putting each other to the test, and applying pressure in spots they knew would make for a tough decision. I wasn’t going to make any money in this game unless I got lucky.
I see Vinny start to walk over to the table, holding a rack with a couple of chips in it. He stops at my seat and puts 4 green chips onto my stack.
“Here’s your bonus, good luck.”
I look down at my stack again to give it a count. With the addition of the bonus, I’m up $50. I felt a little trapped, because I didn’t want to look bad trying to cash out as soon as I got the bonus. I toss the dealer two greenbirds and get up to grab a rack.
I definitely wanted to come back. The level of play was much higher than I had ever seen, and I noticed that they were much more strict on the rules here. This interested me, because poker is one of the few games without a universal set of rules. I wanted to learn more about the rules of poker, feeling as if I should be well educated in the subject, considering I wanted to improve my skills as a dealer.
I head over to Vinny at the podium to cash out. He quickly counts up my chips, totaling $200, and hands me two, crisp $100 bills. It was no more than a few hours until the Sunday’s sun would rise.
“Thanks for coming. We’re having a $75 tournament later on at 3PM if you feel like playing. We usually get about 50-60 players.”
“Yeah, that sounds good. I’ll be here.”
I pocket the cash and make my way over to the steel door. I leave the room, walk down the stairs, and head for the exit.
I get into my car and start driving home. I hop onto the expressway and take out my phone to give Andy a call.
“WOOP WOOP”, I hear the sound of the siren as I look into my rear-view mirror and see a cop flashing his lights, singling me to pull over.
Great, just what I need — I had never been pulled over before.
To be continued…
Next:
Inside Underground NY Poker #4 submitted by Sorry for the click baity title but I really want to call attention to this. I am an avid card game player and I have always thought Magic as the best designed, but due to the cost and accessibility(not being able to play whenever) I've never really gotten into paper Magic. So I was thrilled when I heard about MtGA coming. But this structure has turned me off completely and let me explain why.
By it's nature the total win rate across all players for Quick Constructed is 3-3. Every game has a winner an every game has a loser, it's a zero sum game. So with each entry costing 500g and the reward for 3-3 being 400g and 3 uncommons it's obviously a net loser, now a 50% win rate can be a loser on value and the system design still provide value because rewards scale quickly in other games with more wins. But in this mode, that's not the case, each win is worth 100g excepting wins 6 and 7 which each have a bonus 100g(I'll get back to this gold in a minute). So effectively for the most part each game is a game in which each player puts up 100g with the winner taking the pot, so for the player base to even out, players would need to be allowed 5 losses before re-rentry to break even. But that's not the case here, players are limited to 3 losses, now they do give back 100g with that being our starting reward value, but that still leaves us 100g or 1 loss short of break even.
Now let's look at the other rewards. I personally view the random uncommons and up to 2 rares negligible. The odds of getting anything you want is so small given the large and ever expanding card pool, and not only that if it's a 5th copy with the current vault system it's nearly worthless. But if you find value here account for that in the data below.
So let's get back to that extra gold for those 2 last wins, surely that can make up some value right(warning about to get into math) ? Well let's calculate what that's worth on average and what it's worth for say a good player 60% win rate seems fair. So for the average 50% let's look at the odds of getting to 6 wins before a 3rd loss this is using a negative binomial distribution: 10.9% so multiply that times 100g for it's EV and you get 10.9g, now the same for 7 wins has a 8.2% and the same math gives another 8.2g EV for a grand total of 19.2g added EV for a 50% win rate player. Let's look at a say a good player(60%): 16.7% for 16.7g and 7 wins: 15% for 15g this gives an added EV for a good player of 31.7g per run. So the added EV from the two win bonuses comes no where near making up for the cost. So effectively an average player is paying 81.8g(100 less the bonus 19.2) and a good player 68.3g(100 less bonus 31.7g) per run in order to play what is effectively a game with a wager of 100g with an opponent.
TLDR: Quick Constructed is effectively a wager game mode with MtGA taking a cut from each run even for good players... Which is exactly like a casino... Now definitely some people would enjoy a wager mode but be aware that's what you are paying for and that's what they are preying on.
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