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Top Betting Mistakes
1) Failure to Use Betting Banks
Most gamblers fail to understand that the best method of achieving a healthy and sustained long term profit from racing is to set aside a sum of money away from your main finances, solely for the betting of horses. Whatever method or system you are using, whoever you are following or subscribing to or however your own bets are calculated, you are better off with a "Betting Bank" that has built -in advantages that can help you. It needs to be independent from your own personal finances and needs to be protected from factors that can threaten it. This can take a lot of emotion out of the decision making process. Emotion is a factor that threatens all punters. The size of your betting bank will of course be dependent upon your own individual circumstances and free capital available.
An analogy to the world of shares perhaps may be that no financial advisor worth his salt would advise you throw all your capital into the stock market alone. The vast majority of punters fail to use any form of set aside bank. They bet randomly with what ever money they have in their pocket at the end of the week or go in too deep with stakes far in excess of their personal safety levels. A punter with a professional attitude will set aside what he can comfortably afford to invest and then determine the best use he can make of that fixed sum of capital. With a fixed sum of capital available you now move on to the next reason for failure.
2) Failure to Stake Correctly
It is vital that you consider your betting bank as capped in amount. You do not have an endless pool of resources to dip into. Betting by its nature carries inherent risks. These risks include periods of low strike rates and long losing runs. Your betting bank and staking should be adapted for the method you use. You must in advance, prepare yourself for the possibility of a worse than average sequence of losers through adoption of a sufficient number of units in your betting bank. Correct methodical staking in addition to the mathematical advantage, can also help overcome the risk of emotional reaction to a sequence of unusually positive or negative results. Take the Pricewise column in the racing post as an example.
Long term if you could get on at the advised prices, it would have returned a decent profit overall. During this time however followers would have to have endured runs of up to 40 losers in a row! Despite the overall long term profit I suspect the vast majority of Pricewise followers would have been terminated either by a failure to set aside a sufficient amount of points or through failure to cope with the emotion of the losing run. We have long since established here a strike rate of about 35% on our Best Bet selections and at an average S.P. of over 5/2 for each winning bet.
We feel able to protect clients banks as long losing runs haven't happened and the strike rate and odds have been more than enough to ensure long steady and safe growth for your betting profits. That is in essence the key to winning money. Manage your accounts in a way that protects them as far as possible from the element of risk that the game presents you.
3) Chasing Losses
Chasing losses at first sight may appear to be an easy way to guarantee an eventual profit but the true story is it is a game for fools and statistically will not work unless you generate an overall level stakes profit. Chasing losses is a game for the ill informed who do not want to make the effort to seek value in their bets. Bookmakers have to price up every race. Punters don't have to play in every race, they can pick the races they want to bet in,and that is the main edge that people fail to understand.
If you have had a losing day, by attempting to chasing your losses you give up that advantage and bet in the races that you should not be betting in. You are therefore betting the way bookmakers want you to and not in the way to win. Many punters will alter their stakes in the last race either to "chase" losses or "play up" winnings. Its no coincidence that the bookmakers have ensured that the last race on each day is often a handicap or one of the hardest races that day. There will be more racing the next day and the day after that.
The secret is waiting for opportunities and only betting when you know you have circumstances which favour you and not the bookmakers. You must never change your approach, or deviate from sensible staking as there is no such things as "The Last Race".
4) Lack of Value Appreciation
Appreciation of "value" in a bet is core to long term success. To profit over a long series of bets you must be betting at odds greater than the true chance of winning your selection have. To do this however over the long term, you need to concentrate on each race individually and seek the value bet in that race. There is value to be had in every race. The key to it is understanding where that value is. Many times a punter will screw up a losing betting slip and say "At least I had some value".
There is absolutely NO relationship between value and prices. A 33/1 chance may be diabolical value yet a very short priced favorite may be supreme value. It does not follow that the bigger the price you take the better "value" you have. The value is sometimes clear but more often well hidden and it takes a trained eye to see that. Everyone has this "Foresight" on occasions, it is a game about opinions after all and nobody is always right or wrong. Value can be the most expensive word in racing if you can't bet winner. The old cliche is that value is about betting a horse whose true chance is better than its price reflects.
That's only a small part of it. You also have to make sure that you bet in the right way and in the right races as that is the only way you can keep strike rates high and protect a betting bank. You should continually strive to increase value in your bets. Once you have a selection you feel is value do not just take the first acceptable price that comes along. Seek to improve it by shopping around the various bookmakers or try and top the best bookmakers price by looking to the betting exchanges. Marginal improvements on odds on each bet you make can have a dramatic effect on long term profits.
5) Greed For Instant Wealth
Many punters seek the thrill of a life changing bet that will produce huge gains of instant wealth for a small outlay. Bookmakers play on your natural desire and go out of their way to encourage you to bet exotic multiple selection bets that can in one hit, turn a small stake into a large sum. Professionals however rarely bet in multiples. Most professionals bet singles and steer away from the multiple bets. Bookmakers relentlessly promote a host of multiple bets with exotic names such as Yankee, Lucky 15, and Goliath.
The reason they are heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker's favour increases the more selections you add to your multiple bet. Say you select any random 5/1 selection. If you bet this as a single the bookmaker may have a theoretical edge in his favor of 15%. Taking two such selections however and betting them in a win double, the bookmakers profit margin rises to about 30% ! Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate.
It is a waste of time debating which type of multiple bet is 'best'. Unless your prediction skills are supernatural or you are incredibly lucky, then betting in singles is more often the best option. You may say that many "Pros," do bet in multiples in bets like The Scoop 6 or the Jackpot, but that's only because they know there is plenty of "Dead" money in any given Pool and they are betting against people who don't understand the dynamics of those types of bet. There are times you should bet in multiples but in truth they are few and far between.
You can't approach this as a "Get Rich Quick " scheme. It is a long slow process of serious and sustained profit and not a game for Get Rich Quick schemers. If you go Into any Betting shop, have a look at all the posters on the wall offering "special offers", "enhanced terms " and "bonus offers". You will see they are all multiple bets. Bookmakers want you betting in multiples and it is easy to see why. They carve most profit from them. You never see a Bookmakers promotion offering extra's on a win or each way single. Ask yourself why.
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Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies
Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.) If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
Expected return and variance A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
Gamblers' Fallacy Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
Betting systems Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
Casino games in GTA Online Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
6) Slots Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots: There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
5) Roulette Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette: Stay away. Stay far away.
4) Three Card Poker With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker: For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
3) Blackjack Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:
https://prnt.sc/olct6g You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
2) Virtual Horse Racing Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User
u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here:
https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
1) Wheel of Fortune The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
2020 Update: As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
Cliffs: -Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (
https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
submitted by enderpiet to gtaonline [link] [comments]
Ultimate Gambling Guide for GTA Online - odds, probabilities, and optimal strategies
This is not mine, the creator of this is
u/enderpiet
Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.) If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
Expected return and variance A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
Gamblers' Fallacy Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
Betting systems Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
Casino games in GTA Online Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
6) Slots Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots: There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
5) Roulette Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette: Stay away. Stay far away.
4) Three Card Poker With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker: For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
3) Blackjack Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules:
https://prnt.sc/olct6g You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
2) Virtual Horse Racing Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User
u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here:
https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato 1) Wheel of Fortune The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
2020 Update: As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
Cliffs: -Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (
https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.
submitted by sircore to gtaonline [link] [comments]
Still game season 7 episode 1 script
SHOOTING SCRIPT DATED 27/06/16 BBC SCOTLAND STILL GAME EPISODE 1 - "GADGETS" Written by FORD KIERNAN AND GREG HEMPHILL THE SENDING OF THIS SCRIPT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER THIS SCRIPT REMAINS CONFIDENTIAL AND THE PROPERTY OF THE BBC 1 INT JACK’S FLAT. LIVING ROOM. MORNING 1 (0930) 1 (JACK, VICTOR) Jack is putting down a couple of rolls and sausage. Jack looks at his watch. There is a knock at the door. JACK: Clock work. Victor enters. VICTOR: Top of the morning, Jack boy. Wee bit nippy out there. JACK: Morning Victor. Victor observes the spread. Rolls, Teas, Penguins. He sits and opens the paper. Jack looks at Victor expectantly. JACK: (CONT’D) Eh...What’s happenin’? Victor munches on his roll and sausage. VICTOR: Gies a chance, Jack, I’ve no read it yet. JACK: No, the other paper. Ma paper to read. VICTOR: I just got the one. JACK: No, that’s no how it works. One of us does the rolls, the teas and the Penguins and the other one jumps down and gets the two papers. We read them then we swap. VICTOR: Ach aye. I just got the one. The headlines were the same. Plus the price is went up. So one’ll dae us. I’ll read this, then gie it to you. CONTINUED: Victor begins to read the paper. VICTOR: (CONT’D) Jeez-o. That’s a surprise. Ooft. Didnae see that comin’. “More on pages 6 and 7. He’s no deid, is he? Jeez that’s young! JACK: So let me get this right. You sit there and get all the news first hand I’ve to sit here with nae news. In the dark. Like a daftie. Out the loop. A caveman. A cromagnon! VICTOR: Put the telly on! Aah, of course, they didnae have tv back in Cromagnon times. Make a fire or whatever it is you people dae. Jack sighs. Victor gives in. VICTOR: (CONT’D) Are ye wanting the paper? JACK: Naw. Just Gimme that wee magazine that they always stick in the middle. Victor pulls out the “Futuroo” catalogue. VICTOR: (Affecting Caveman voice) MAGAZINE. GIFT. LOOK PICTURES. JACK: I will fashion a spear and stick it up your arse. (Same caveman voice) EYES MAKE WATER. Victor throws it to Jack. JACK: (CONT’D) I love these. Full of clever, handy stuff ye cannae get in the shops. There’s yer key ring calculator. VICTOR: What de ye need that for? (CONTINUED)
CONTINUED: JACK: That would dae a janitor. “How many daft keys have I got here? Oh haud on I’ve got a wee calculator here.” (Reading) Thermal cup. “Keep yer cuppa piping hot!” VICTOR: I don’t see the benefit of that. JACK: Well, Ye make a cup of tea, you go for a biscuit, slip, faw, snap yer leg, up the hospital, 4 hours on a gurney, ignored! Up the road a again, greeting wi’ the pain, gasping for a cup of tea, Oh hello! Roasting hot cup of tea just the way you left it! Perfect! VICTOR: That is a handy thing. Bad fracture. Nice cup of tea. JACK: Look at this! It’s a big magnifying glass ye clip onto the newspaper, turns awe the print big. VICTOR: That would be good. If ye had a newspaper tae read. Jack looks up from his catalogue. Victor raises his paper up and returns to reading. JACK: Hmph. (Jack chuckles) Look at this. VICTOR: What is it? JACK: It’s the shite you get as well. The Eggmaster 3000. This is aimed at wankers. What it does is, you stick two eggs in it the night before.. VICTOR: Uh-huh. CONTINUED: JACK: ...and it boils them for you before you wake up! VICTOR: Haha! JACK: And if you order it before the end of the month you get the Toastie soldier companion! VICTOR: (Laughing) Eggmaster 3000!!! Gies a look at it. JACK: You can read it when I’m done wi’ it. JACK: (CONT’D) Eggmaster 3000 What kind of windae licker would part with his money for that? HARD CUT TO: 2 INT. WINSTON’S FLAT. LIVING ROOM/FRONT DOOR DAY 1 (1000) 2 (WINSTON, CHRIS THE POSTIE) Winston is on the phone. He is holding a Futuroo catalogue open. WINSTON: Yes. The Eggmaster 3000 please. Winston licks his thumb and rubs a mark off his window. WINSTON: (CONT’D) And am I still eligible for the Toastie soldier companion? You dancing bear. That’s great, thanking you. Would I like expedited delivery? What does Expedited mean? Quicker. Aye gies that, Hen. Cheerio now. Winston’s doorbell goes. WINSTON: (CONT’D) What a service! He goes to the front door and opens it. Chris the Postie stands before him. CHRIS: Registered letter. Winston signs the electric box. Chris looks at it disparagingly. CHRIS: (CONT’D) Is that yer signature, aye? WINSTON: Yes. Exactly the same as it always is. (Points to his signature) Yingimnyingyem. Winston slams the door in his face and opens his letter. He returns to his living room and lays it out on the table.
2 CONTINUED: 2 WINSTON: (CONT’D) Oh dear. Well that’s a surprise. Better run round the place with the hoover. 3 INT NAVID’S DAY 1 (1030) 3 (NAVID, ISA, WINSTON) Isa dusting cans. Navid emerges from the beads. He watches Isa from behind. Her bum is wiggling away while she is dusting. NAVID: You know, Isa, I never give you anything. Beat. Isa turns and looks at Navid. A hint of romance on her face. ISA: How de ye mean? Navid pulls a mop from behind the counter. ISA: (CONT’D) A mop? NAVID: No just any mop, Isa. He turns the mop to reveal the legend emblazoned on it: NAVID: (CONT’D) Got you something out the Futuroo catalogue. The Floor Hear-o! ISA: Ooh, Navid, I’m no needing that, I like ma string mop. Navid lifts the mop. It has three measly strings left. NAVID: C’mon. That mop looks like it’s had chemo. And anyway. The Floor Hear-o has Bluetooth. ISA: Bluetooth? It’s normally Detol I use. Navid pulls out headphones. 3 CONTINUED: 3 NAVID: Dear oh dear. (Patronizing) Bluetooth gives you wireless music, Isa. ISA: Wireless? NAVID: Nae Wires. Wire free! Do you no know nothing? ISA: But if I want music, Navid, there’s a perfectly good transistor there! NAVID: That’s for me to listen to my quality music. This is for you to listen to your shite. It makes your mopping a whole lot simpler cause the music makes the chore pass much quicker. Winston enters and begins shopping. Navid puts the headphones on Isa. Her face lights up. Isa sidles off, mopping and shaking her behind to the music. ISA: It’s got a lovely fast action! HELLO WINSTON! NAVID GOT ME THESE! AS A PRESENT! Winston recoils in fright. He heads to the counter. Navid smiles at Winston and leans in. NAVID: It’s actually a present for all of us. WINSTON: Eh? Winston’s face lights up. He turns to Isa. WINSTON: (CONT’D) Aah, earmuffs for a nosy cow! Isa just smiles. (CONTINUED) 3 CONTINUED: 3 WINSTON: (CONT’D) JACK AND VICTOR HAVE WENT AFF THEIR HEIDS AND THEY’VE JUMPED OFF THE HIGH FLATS. Isa smiles, not hearing a thing. WINSTON/NAVID: He he he. Navid and Winston share a knowing laugh. Navid has played a blinder. ISA: When’s your house guest coming? WINSTON: What? Isa ghosts over. She takes her headphones off. She cooly scans Winston’s basket. ISA: Well, big tin of soup instead of small tin, Full loaf, when you normally take a wee one, a dozen eggs, not six. And the quilted toilet roll. You usually buy the cheap stuff that yer fingers go through... You’ve got a house guest visiting. I’m asking when? NAVID: Scary. Winston is raging. WINSTON: See you, Isa? You should grow a moustache, well, a thicker moustache. Get it waxed up at the ends and get a job mopping on the Orient Express ya nosy bastard ye! Winston heads to the door, beaten again. Isa goes back to her mopping. Winston exits. ISA: Right, that’s me away! NAVID: Okey dokey. 3 CONTINUED: 3 Navid quickly inspects the floor. NAVID: (CONT’D) Haud on! You’ve missed a big bit there! ISA: Aye. I tried moppin there but the music wouldnae go on my Wi-Fi. It’s a cold spot they call that. Cheeryby! 4 INT CLANSMAN DAY 1 (1115) 4 (TAM, BOABBY, ERIC, JACK, VICTOR, WALTER, WINSTON) Tam is thumbing through the Futuroo catalogue. TAM: Spider Catcher. 19.99? Not a chance. Batter it with a slipper. 20 quid saved. What’s this noo? An Ionic Shoe Freshener. 49.99! Bollocks. Shoes aff, stinking. Lidl’s “Ssst. Ssst.” Thruppence worth of a squirt, Cotton fresh. Boabby takes Tam’s magazine. He looks at it with disgust. BOABBY: Aimed at pensioners! “That’ll make my meaningless life easier. This might keep me out the grave for another 15 minutes!” Look at this. An Electric Bunnet. “Outsmart Jack Frost this winter with the Hot Cap. Shite. ERIC: No shite, Boabby. It’s Toasty. It came the day. Magic. Eric takes his hat off and demonstrates. ERIC: (CONT’D) Yer wee PP3 battery goes in there. Awe the lining in there is like a mini electric blanket. Eric switches it on. Everybody stares at him. ERIC: (CONT’D) Wait! There ye go. It’s kickin in noo! BOABBY: Very good. You wanting a pint or what? ERIC: Aye. I’ll a take a pint of cider. Lots of ice!, Boabby.
Eric takes his jacket off. ERIC: (CONT’D) I’m roasting! I’m sweatin’ like Pavarotti’s pallbearers. Jack and Victor enter. BOABBY: Look who it is! Chas and Dave! JACK: That’s right and you put the Cock in Cockney. Two pints, prick! A man comes in at the back of them. He looks similar to Winston in shape, face and same coloured clothes. VICTOR: And get a pint for Winston. BOABBY: That’s no Winston. Jack and Victor turn round. BOTH: Walter! WALTER: Hey, long time to see! TAM: Must be what, WALTER: Lemme think noo...15 year! JACK: Have you seen Winston yet? WALTER: No. Thought I’d jump in for a quick pint first before I go over to see WINSTON! Winston walks in. WINSTON: What are you like? In here entertaining the troops before you visit yer brother! (CONTINUED) CONTINUED: Winston limps over. WALTER: A drink for ma brother! In fact get one fur everybody! WALTER: (CONT’D) What happened to your leg? WINSTON: Lost it. Fags. WALTER: Oh dear. Winston grabs Walter’s right hand. WINSTON: Anyway, how ye doin’? Winston shakes his arm. It extends by about a foot and a half. Something is badly wrong. WINSTON: (CONT’D) What happened to your arm? WALTER: Lost it. Rigs. Winston looks round. Everyone is stifling a laugh. WALTER: (CONT’D) Got a big payday oot it! WINSTON: That’s good. So where have you been? WALTER: Where have I no been? I was on the Heimdal gas field. Transferred and got moved to Oselvar. Oil. That awe travels via the Northpipe tae- The boys are enthralled. Walter hears snoring. We cut to see Eric is asleep. WALTER: (CONT’D) Stop me if I’m boring ye! TAM: No, no, you’re no boring him it’s the battery bunnet. Tam taps Eric on the head. TAM: (CONT’D) Eric, wake up ya auld tit! Tam lifts the hat off Eric’s head. He reacts to the hat being scorching! Eric’s head is bright red. TAM: (CONT’D) Bloody hell! It’s roasting! Tam juggles the hat like a hot potato. Smoke comes off it. He throws it on the bar counter. It bursts into flames. Everyone reacts! ALL: Haaawwwwww! Eric wakes up. Boabby lifts the soda gun and douses it. It hisses out. The danger is over. ERIC: No ma good bunnet! That cost me an arm and a leg! Everyone reacts to Eric’s faux pas. ALL: Haaaaaaaaw! Winston and Walter laugh.
5 INT JACK AND VICTOR’S LANDING. MORNING 2 (1000) 5 (JACK, VICTOR, ISA, CHRIS THE POSTIE) Jack emerges from his flat. Isa stands before him, at her door. ISA: Morning, Jack. JACK: (Taken aback) Morning, Isa. After a few beats, Victor emerges from his flat. VICTOR: Jack. Isa. JACK: Victor. ISA: Victor. Morning. VICTOR: Morning to you too. A few more dry beats. We cut back and forth between their smiling, waiting expressions. Eventually, the lift pings open. Chris the Postie emerges. He gets a fright at the three of them standing there. CHRIS: What’s this? Have I got off the lift at a zombie movie? Dawn of the Decrepit? JACK: Very funny. You got something for us? CHRIS: I do as it happens. I’ve got something for all of ye. Chris hands out three parcels, one to each. Victor’s is small, Isa’s is medium sized, Jack’s is large. 5 5 All three recognise the Futuroo wrapping paper on each parcel and nod knowingly to one another. ALL: Aaaaahhhh. ISA: All different sizes. A wee innovation fur each of us. Tae make life that wee bit easier. Whose gonnie kick things aff. VICTOR: Allow me. He opens his box and presents a stone. JACK: A stone. VICTOR: At first glance. Observe! Victor takes out his house keys and puts them inside the stone. ISA: What’s the good of that? VICTOR: If I come in one night, after an evening in the Clansman and discover I’ve lost my keys because I’m pished or what have you, then I’ve got a set right here. Disguised as a common or garden pebble. JACK: Which wouldnae look oot a place in the garden but this is a landing. VICTOR: Eh? Oh aye. JACK: A robber would see that and say “Oooh, there’s one of they plastic Futuroo hide yer key pebbles.” That’ll save me kicking the door in. (CONTINUED) 5 CONTINUED: 5 Victor puts it down by his front door. VICTOR: Shut up. It looks good there. Like a rockery. JACK: Like yer starting a rockery. A one rock rockery. A shitey rockery. ISA: Ye should get doon the garden centre and get mair rocks roon aboot it. Isa opens her parcel. It is a wee brown plastic dog. She switches it on and puts it down on the door mat. She flashes a wee handset device. She goes into her house and shuts the door. ISA: (CONT’D) Watch. Jack and Victor look at each other. ISA: (OOV) (CONT’D) CHAP MA DOOR! Jack and Victor knock. The dog speaks, we hear Isa’s voice: DOG: Who is it, please? JACK: You know who it is. DOG: For the purposes of demonstration please state your name. VICTOR: Victor McDade and Jack Jarvis. JACK: Esquire. ISA: I’m sorry I can’t come to the door right now as I’m making Cock-ALeekie soup. So bugger off.
5 CONTINUED: 5 BOTH: Good/That’s a handy thing, that. DOG: Right. Come in and show me what you got, Jack. Jack. Jack? Victor? Jack and Victor are gone. HARD CUT TO: 6 INT JACK’S FLAT - BATHROOM. DAY 2 (1030) 6 (JACK, VICTOR) Jack and Victor stand in front of a fancy, white electronic “Bath Tidy” which sits across the bath full of gadgets. Radio, reading stand, soap dispenser etc. Two plastic white lights Packed with shite. VICTOR: Woaf. That is the bollocks. The business. The daddy of them all. What the hell is it? JACK: What’s your bath time routine? VICTOR: I don’t take a bath. Routinely. Too much hassle. I dae my ablutions with ma shower head. JACK: Ablutions? VICTOR: Aye, Ye know, Roon the houses. Oxters, arsehole, clacker bag. JACK: Thank you, Victor. I’ve now got that in Panavision. But I know what you’re saying. I’m the same. I just use the shower. To men of oor age, a bath is a pain in the arse. But with the Techno Tub. No-sir-ee. Soap dispenser, dish there, thermometer there, beer holder, book stand, lights and the piece to resistance, Jack switches on a dial. We hear an old tune. JACK: (CONT’D) Bath time’s a pleasure. And I’ll be having one tonight. VICTOR: Nice. Much was it? 6 CONTINUED: 6 JACK: 34.99. VICTOR: Aye. That’s better than a dummy stone right enough. Once ye’ve used that tonight, I’ll take a shot of it and have a good steep masel.. JACK: Naw. The Techno Tub’s a personal thing. That’s like taking a lain of a man’s sponge. Away and fondle yer stone. Victor leaves. 7 EXT STREET DAY 2 (1400) 7 (TAM, ERIC, WALTER, WINSTON, JACK) Tam and Eric stand with Walter and Winston. Walter is finishing a funny story. WALTER: (Jerks a thumb to Winston) Two of us are steaming and he turns roon and says “Naw, you haud it’s heid! I’ll put the wellies on it!” Tam and Eric lose it. They are all laughing. Jack approaches. He carries Soap and a new sponge. JACK: What huv I missed, what’s awe the laughing aboot? ERIC: Ma ribs are sore. TAM: It’s Walter here, you could be a stand-up comedian, son! Or youse could be a double act. But you’d huv to go the straight man, Winston. Everyone laughs. ERIC: Or the clown that comes oot before the main event! JACK: Aye cause he’s it and you’re shit! That could be yer double act name! “Ladies and Gentlemen, a big hand,” nae offence, Walter, “for IT AND SHIT!” WINSTON: Thanks, fur that, Jack. JACK: Sorry. 7 CONTINUED: 7 WALTER: Right, where are we gaun, the bookies? Let’s flash some cash! WINSTON: Naw, naw. Stevie the bookie’s a wrong ‘un. WALTER: How? WINSTON: Long story. Everyone smiles and looks at their shoes. WINSTON: (CONT’D) Right. I had an accumulator come up. 35 grand. Stevie does a runner. Then he comes back, Shaves his heid baldy and claims to be his brother. I stay in his toilet awe night and bust him, so he pays me, but I cannae stay oot the place and I start losing it. I’m down to my last few quid then bingo I get it awe back. Stick it in ma leg which flew out the windae and a ned ran away with all ma lolly. (To Jack) Ye remember awe that? JACK: Vaguely. WINSTON: How about the Greyhounds? Where’s Victor? JACK: Up the garden centre buying bloody pebbles. WINSTON: What fur? JACK: He’s a crackpot. WINSTON: You want tae come wi’ us? Jack waves his new sponge and bar of soap. (CONTINUED)
7 CONTINUED: 7 JACK: Naw. I’m going up the road tae have a bath. I’ve no had a bath for two year! Everybody steps back from Jack. JACK: (CONT’D) I’ve had showers and that. Naw, youse enjoy yourselves. 8 INT JACK’S FLAT - BATHROOM. NIGHT 2 (1800) 8 (JACK) Jack has got his big tartan robe on. He is watching his bath fill up. He presses on the lights then turns the overhead light off to see the water sparkling. He turns on the radio and hums along with the tune. JACK: Ooh, look at you, filling up lovely. Jack decants a tin of beer into a pint tumbler and places it in the glass holder on the bath tidy. He checks the temp on the bath tidy. JACK: (CONT’D) Temperature’s just tickety-boo. Book stand. Jack pulls from his robe a giant grave stone slab of Dairy Milk and puts it on the book stand. JACK: (CONT’D) I’ll be getting intae you, shortly and I don’t know when I’ll be getting out! We see the robe falling to the floor to Jack’s feet and the sound of him entering the bath. 9 INT JACK AND VICTOR’S LANDING. NEXT MORNING 3 (0930) 9 (JACK V/O, VICTOR, ISA) Victor emerges with a pack of Digestives. The floor space outside his door is now covered with pebbles. He steps over them stumbling and trying to get his balance. VICTOR: 16 quid for this pile of shit. He eventually navigates them and arrives and knocks Jack’s door. Nothing. He knocks it again. JACK: (OOV) (Muffled) Victor! Victor cocks his ear. What was that? JACK: (CONT’D) Victor! Victor opens the letter box. VICTOR: Jack? JACK: Help! VICTOR: Huv ye fell!? JACK: Naw I’m stuck in the bath I’ve been in it all night? VICTOR: Oh Jesus! Haud on! Isa’s dog’s eye’s light up. DOG: What’s all the commotion? Victor runs and raps Isa’s door. VICTOR: Isa! Isa! Jack’s stuck in the bath! (CONTINUED) 9 CONTINUED: 9 DOG: Who’s calling? VICTOR: It’s me, Victor. Open the door! DOG: I’m sorry, I cannot receive guests, at the moment for I am in my dressing gown eating toast and reading my Bella magazine. Victor snatches up the dog and begins shouting in its face. VICTOR: LISTEN TO ME YOU HALFWIT! OPEN THIS BLOODY DOOR, JACK’S STUCK IN THE BATH! GET IT OPENED OR I’LL RIP THIS DUG’S LEGS AFF! Isa opens the door. Victor has run back across the landing. VICTOR: (CONT’D) (trying the door.) It’s locked! ISA: Put yer shoulder tae it! VICTOR: Oot the road. Victor takes a feeble run and hits it like snowball hitting a gas fire. He hits it again. Same result. He kicks it feebly. ISA: MOVE! Victor gets out the way. Isa runs full steam at the door. She knocks it clean off its hinges. 10 INT JACK’S FLAT - BATHROOM. DAY 3 (0930) 10 (JACK, VICTOR, ISA) Victor and Isa enter frantically. VICTOR: Jack, ye awright? What’s happened here? JACK: What de ye thinks happened? I’ve thought this bath is that good I’ve decided to live in it! I’m stuck! I cannae get oot! ISA: Jack, yer wullie! Victor grabs a small face cloth. VICTOR: Here, I’ll cover that up! JACK: Wi’ a bigger towel!!! ISA: Who takes a bloody bath first thing in the morning? JACK: I took it last night! VICTOR: And ye’ve took another one this morning? JACK: I’VE BEEN IN HERE SINCE LAST NIGHT! BOTH: Bloody hell/Oh my! JACK: Look at the state of ma skin I’m like Judy Finnegan! VICTOR: And ye cannae lift yersel oot? (CONTINUED)
10 CONTINUED: 10 JACK: I’m awe stuck to the sides, like suction! ISA: Just pull the plug oot! JACK: I cannae, it’s directly under ma ringer I’ve tried that! VICTOR: Don’t panic! JACK: Panic? I’m no panicking! I’m past the panicking bit! I was panicking for about ten hours, but that’s past noo! ISA: Call 911! JACK: What, for American Police? VICTOR: Away ye go, ya hofwit! “Is that CSI Miami, ma pals stuck in the bath. Where? Glesga!” Idiot. It’s 999! JACK: Haud on, Victor, you cannae dae that! VICTOR: How? JACK: That’s for emergencies, I’m no dyin! I’m just wanting out the bath. There’s a number ye phone when yer having trouble wi’ a bath? ISA: BnQ. VICTOR! Naw! I know what it is, it’s 101. 10 10 JACK: That’s crime! I’ve no been robbed. The only thing that’s getting robbed is ma bastardin’ dignity! ISA: Aaaaagh! I know what it is! VICTOR: What? ISA: This happened to Big Janice Mcafferty her wi’ the eating disorder you know who I’m talking aboot she’s barred from Gregg’s fur grazing she got stuck and her man called.... Everyone waits. VICTOR: Her man called.... JACK: Man called..... ISA: Kenny. JACK: THE NUMBER HE CALLED YA DAFT COW! ISA: NHS Ambulance services department. Isa runs out the bathroom ISA: (CONT’D) THAT’S WHO YOU CALL! 11 INT NAVID’S. LATE MORNING 3 (1100) 11 (NAVID, WINSTON, WALTER, MEENA) Winston and Walter arrive in the shop. They sidle up to the counter. WINSTON: Navid. Meet my brother. Walter. NAVID: Walter. Nice to see you. What can I do you for? WALTER: Cigars? What huv ye got? Navid turns round and selects a single panatella. NAVID: Cigars! I have classy ones for the man about town and not so classy ones for the man about scheme. WALTER: Classy. Always classy. NAVID: Claaassy. I used to be a half Corona man myself. That was when we lived in Gujarat. WALTER: I know Gujarat. NAVID: You know Gujarat? WALTER: Oh aye. I worked in LaHore for long enough. The guy I worked wi’ was from Gujurat. Aftab Jarwar. He was a good laugh. Tiny wee fella. He was only about 4 foot six. Walter switches into Punjabi WALTER: (CONT’D) (Translation:) But he had a cock like an elephant. 11 11 Navid and Walter piss themselves laughing. NAVID: (In Punjabi) A cock like an elephant! That’s a cracker. Meena shouts from behind the beads. MEENA: Aftab Jarwar? I think I might have met him! Navid, Walter and Meena are howling with laughter. Winston is trying to join in the laughter. It fades. Navid sticks the cigar in Walter’s shirt pocket. NAVID: Here. Take that. That’s a better laugh than he’s ever gied me! Winston laughs again weakly. There is an awkwardly silence. NAVID: (CONT’D) Have YOU ever been anywhere good, Winston? WINSTON: Eh. Aye. RawalPindi. NAVID: Oh! In the Punjab region? WINSTON: No, in the Sauchiehall Street region. Next to the dry cleaners. Nice Pakora. Winston smiles expecting a laugh. He gets nothing. Tough shop. 12 INT JACK’S FLAT - BATHROOM DAY 3 (1130) 12 (JACK, VICTOR, BIG JOHN, ISA) Jack is asleep. Eventually, he stirs. When he wakes, he looks confused. How was he sleeping? He sniffs. Something’s not right. Jack freaks out, splashing water everywhere. We cut wide to see that Victor is taking a shit. JACK: What the hell are ye daein? VICTOR: Sorry Jack I was putting if off for ages, I’ve hud tae park a loaf in yer lavvy! JACK: Ye animal! Who does that? You only live next door! VICTOR: I couldnae leave ye yersel in the bath, ye’ve been asleep! You could huv done a Whitney Houston! JACK: Where are these people that are supposed to be getting me out the bath? VICTOR: That’s nearly two hours since we found ye, they’re surely due noo! JACK: And if they come right noo, they’re gonnie be confused! “Dearie me, This is a dilemma, who do we save first? The poor auld fella stuck in the bath or the silly auld duffer, superglued to the shiter! Finish yer manky business and get aff ma pan! VICTOR: Right look away. 12 12 Jack looks away. Victor does up his trousers. An irate, very large man enters. VICTOR: (CONT’D) Hello! You must be from the services. JACK: Naw! This is big John fae doon stairs! How are you, John? JOHN: What’s gaun on here? VICTOR: He’s stuck in the bath, son. JOHN: Are ye? Well I’ve got water coming doon into ma bathroom. Which I’ve been daein up for the last three months and I’ve just finished. Only to look up and see drip drip drip drip! The man bundles past Victor. JOHN: (CONT’D) Oot the way! The man removes the front panel of the bath. JOHN: (CONT’D) Look at that. Soakin. Rotten. That needs sorted! I told you about that, two year ago! VICTOR: Look, keep the heid. There’s an ambulance on it’s way! JOHN: If I get any mair water doon on me it’ll be a hearse yer needin’! The man stomps out. JACK: Charmin’. VICTOR: Where are these toerags? (CONTINUED) 12 CONTINUED: 12 Isa comes in dressed. ISA: Are they still not here? JACK: Absolutely typical, intit? Leaving an old man stuck in the bath. VICTOR: It’s disgusting. It’s because the pensioner isnae a priority! ISA: Aye, dirty lazy pigs, we’re the bottom of the pile and no mistake! VICTOR: How long did they say they’d be? ISA: Who? VICTOR: The emergency services? ISA: What did they say to me? JACK: When you called them! ISA: I didnae call them! I thought Victor’d called them, I was away getting ready! JACK: You couple of stupid arseholes! Victor and Isa run out the bathroom. JACK: (OOV) (CONT’D) VICTOR! Victor pokes his head back in the toilet. VICTOR: Yes, Jack! JACK: Flush!
12 CONTINUED: 12 VICTOR: Oh aye! Victor flushes the toilet. 13 INT STEVIE THE BOOKIE’S DAY 3 (1145) 13 (WINSTON, WALTER, STEVIE) Walter and Winston are watching a horse race. Stevie the Bookie looks on from his counter. He smiles at Winston, who looks away in disgust. WALTER: C’mon then. C’mon then. Bingo! WINSTON: Beat by a bawhair! Winston scrumples up his bookie slip in the old school style. He accompanies Walter to the counter. Walter heads to the window first, offering his slip. STEVIE: Excuse me, a minute sir, if I could just tend to this customer first. Stevie signals to Winston. WALTER: Oh aye. Of course. Walter steps out the way, leaving Stevie to do a victory gloat dance right in Winston’s face. Winston takes it in silence. It lasts for however long the episode is short. Stevie’s dance comes to an abrupt end. He turns to Walter. Walter looks to Winston quizzically. “What was that about?” WINSTON: Just ignore him, Walter. STEVIE: How can I help you? WALTER: Wee accumulator came up there. STEVIE: (affable) Nice! Lemme see. Now you don’t see that very often. You’ve started with a pound. Ye’ve predicted McPherson in round three last night. Score draw, next, they’re very tricky. (MORE) 13 13 STEVIE: (CONT'D) The winner at Hamilton. And you never took the odds. That was clever. Stevie casts an eye at Winston. STEVIE: (CONT’D) £210. Well done. Stevie grins at Winston. Winston shakes his head. But he’s not annoyed. He smiles to himself at the irony of his arch enemy cosying up to his brother. Walter takes the money with his plastic hand. STEVIE: (CONT’D) Smart accumulator. Clever. That’s took a bit of nouse. I wouldn’t mind buying you a pint and picking yer brains about your process! WALTER: Anytime! WINSTON: Aye, anytime. STEVIE: Naw, I was referring to the winners’ enclosure. Winston and Walter make to leave. STEVIE: (CONT’D) Winston! Winston turns. Stevie reprises his “Victory” dance to annoy him. 14 INT JACK’S FLAT - BATHROOM DAY 3 (1200) 14 (JACK, VICTOR, ISA) Victor enters. Isa is sitting on the loo. VICTOR: You’re no taking a dump an awe are ye? ISA: Indeed I am not ya filthy pig! JACK: What did they say? VICTOR: Yer no gonnie like this. They said it could be up to six hours. JACK: I’ll no last another six hours. This water’s gaun cold. ISA: We can fix that, wi’ a wee top up. Isa turns on the hot water tap but it’s tight. ISA: (CONT’D) It’s no comin’. Victor rolls up his sleeves. VICTOR: Please. He moves past her to the tap. He applies a serious amount of pressure to turn it. It comes away in his hand. Water gushes out the tap. JACK: That’s quite nice. That’s gettin hot. That’s getting too hot, Victor! It’s ROASTING IT’S SCORCHING! SERIOUSLY, SERIOUSLY THAT’S TOO MUCH! You’d be as well throwing totties in here! 14 14 ISA: Ye need the cauld tae coonter it! Isa turns on the cold tap. VICTOR: Right! It’s now or never! Grab my hands Jack! Jack grabs Victor’s hands. VICTOR: (CONT’D) Ye ready? One! Two Three! Victor has no leverage. He topples into the bath on top of Jack. Water pishes everywhere. Isa lifts a bucket. She begins to bail water from the bath to the toilet sink. It’s going everywhere. Victor crawls out. His soaking clothes are dripping everywhere. He slips on the floor. 15 INT CLANSMAN AFTERNOON 3 (1400) 15 (BOABBY, WINSTON, WALTER) Winston and Walter are draining a pint. Boabby stands cleaning tumblers. WALTER: (Awkward) Well, I better be hitting the road. That’s a good gang of pals you’ve got here, Winston. WINSTON: Aye, I’m very lucky. Jack, Victor, Tam, Eric, Isa, Navid. Boabby waits patiently for his mention. WINSTON: (CONT’D) Oh aye. I nearly forgot. Stevie the bookie. Boabby gives up and heads into the stock room. WALTER: Aye the bookie. I liked him. Great guy. WINSTON: Oh aye. Great guy. Salt of the earth. (Under his breath) Which I wish he was under. Beat. WALTER: It’s a shame about poor old Auntie Lily, dying, intit? WINSTON: And there it is. WALTER: There what is? WINSTON: The reason for your visit, Walter. Yer bus is in an hour, but there was one wee last bit of business you had to take care of. The bite. 15 15 WALTER: I don’t know what yer talking aboot! Winston pulls out a letter. The one he received at the beginning of the episode. WINSTON: This is the letter telling me Lily had passed. As soon as it arrived, I knew you wouldn’t be long at the back of it. Cause that’s how you operate. Four times I’ve seen you in the last forty years. Each time to borrow money. From me. Money you never paid back. You never even showed at oor Ma’s or our Dad’s funerals. That’s because they had nothing. Walter nods, knowing. He’s been busted. WALTER: So was there any... WINSTON: Money? Yes. Lily left four thousand. WALTER: So that’s two thousand each? WINSTON: No. Winston takes out an envelope. He pushes it across the table. WINSTON: (CONT’D) Take the lot. Walter leaves. 16 INT JACK’S FLAT - BATHROOM DAY 3 (1430) 16 (JACK, VICTOR, ISA, BIG JOHN) Big John from down the stairs stomps in. JOHN: I warned you! My ceiling is soaking noo! How can you still be stuck? ISA: I know, it’s a helluva carry on right enough they’re sayin’ on the phone it could be up tae six- JOHN: Shut up! I’m no wanting yer life story ya daft auld trout! Huv ye any Fairy Liquid? JACK: Aye! Under ma sink in the kitchen! John runs out. ISA: What’s he gonnie dae wi’ Fairy Liquid, Jack? JACK: Maybe he just wants to get his temper doon, dae a few dishes. ISA: I, it’s like therapy, that, intit? Anger management. John comes back in JOHN: Oot the road! John squirts fairy liquid all down Jack’s back and yanks him out the bath like a bear. Victor puts the robe on him. JACK: Listen son. I’m really sorry I let water doon on yer new bathroom. (MORE) 16 16 JACK: (CONT'D) But I was stuck in that bath aboot sixteen hours! JOHN: What ye doin taking a bath at your age? Victor drags the Techno tub bath tidy out the bath. VICTOR: He normally takes a shower but he bought this! JOHN: What is it? JACK: Techno tub! It’s does everything. Radio, lights, temperature. VICTOR: It’s a great thing. JOHN: What do you do with it? Victor sits it on the bath. VICTOR: It just sits there. Voila. The bath disappears under its own weight through the floor. VICTOR: (CONT’D) Techno Tub. JACK: Bath tidy. Isa stares down the hole. ISA: Yer bathroom really is lovely. Was that a new shower cubicle? Post Sig 17 INT CLANSMAN NIGHT 3 (2215) 17 (JACK, VICTOR, WINSTON, TAM, BOABBY, ISA, ERIC) Everybody is gathered. They are all quite bevvied. JACK: It’s no just what Walter says, it’s the way he says it. It’s a gift, that. TAM: You just have to look at him and he creases ye up. VICTOR: That must be a bit weird for you Winston. WINSTON: How so? VICTOR: Just, having the older brother who’s the life and soul and eh... WINSTON: Funnier than me? ALL: Noo! Didnae say that. Deserving of a watch etc WINSTON: Ye cannae be jealous of family. Anyway, he’s away noo so you’ll just have to put up with the support act. Everyone chuckles. Boabby picks up a notepad awkwardly. BOABBY: Away? Em, Winston, so over the last couple of days? Walter’s ran up a tab here. 40 quid. Winston blanches, before going into his pocket without missing a beat. 17 17 WINSTON: Calm doon. He telt me aboot that. He gave me this to square ye up. Did ye think he’d done a runner? BOABBY: No! That’s great. Right. Sorry. Winston hands Boabby 40 quid. JACK: To Walter. ALL: To Walter. WINSTON: Aye, to Walter. We see the wistful look on Winston’s face. Once again he bails out his brother. Hard cut:
18 INT. JACK AND VICTOR’S LANDING. NIGHT 3 (2230) 18 (JACK, VICTOR, ISA? VOICE FROM DOG) Jack leans against Victor’s front door. He is in full gloat. JACK: Still nae joy? Victor is on his knees looking through his “rockery”, chucking stones over his shoulder. VICTOR: Which one was it?! Isa’s electronic door dog’s eyes glow white as it comes to life DOG: Want me to make up the couch? Jack and Victor stare at the dog. They begin to throw rocks at it. END OF EPISODE
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(With actual Sakurai interview sources cited) ... Analyzing Sakurai's previous interviews and current characters to figure out who all is in DLC wave 2.
Disclaimer: A lot of this is speculation, based on actual character releases or quotes from Sakurai. Feel free to share further information or disagree completely. I think speculation can be fun and I'd love to have other people's input.
tl;dr - There isnt one. Sorry. :(
After Byleth dropped, I was curious. I wanted to dig to see if there was a specific method to Sakurai's madness when choosing a character for Smash. I did a lot of article hunting and wanted to share some of the more relevant, blatant stuff I found interesting. And since Sakurai said they already have the next 6 DLC characters decided on, it'd be pretty dope if we, as a community, could guess/deduce who they could be.
Some quotes and sources:
Some sources from Sakurai directly on how characters are decided along with some highlights noted: Nintendo World Report January 2015
- "For example Greninja, even before his name was decided I received several illustrations. I took them home in the evening and around midnight I had already done all his actions, normal moves, special moves and pose-pictures and sent them around asking "What do you think?"."
Game Informer interview February 2015
- "Simply retelling stories from the past would make me sound like a doddering old man rambling to a disinterested crowd, so I think it’s necessary to strike a fair balance between the past and present."
- "I also look ahead to see if there are promising-looking characters from other games that are still in the early stages of development."
- "With all of that in mind, characters with no future – in other words, ones from series with little chance of a new release going forward – are difficult to justify unless thereʼs some special aim I have in mind. This doesn't apply for alternate costumes or models for existing characters, though."
Game Informer interview November 2018
- "We do things like base our consideration on the results of the Smash ballot, and also balance things out so that there’s a difference in the types of fighters."
- "It is a project after all, so we take into consideration things like labor, man-hours, the time in which the title will be sold. We decide on the fighters from the very early planning stage, and from there, we calculate and begin production. We don’t add or remove any characters during the project."
- "By the way, as for Incineroar, during our planning stage we knew that a new Pokémon game was coming, so we intentionally kept one spot open for that, and we decided which character to create once we received more info on the title."
A collection list of interesting Sakurai sayings/points (with sources from Sakurai's book.)
- All the info there is bulleted and cited in the comment there and easy to read, so I won't quote it here, but its full of insight.
1st and 3rd party reps:
On 1st party reps:
There are a couple of things to look at. Importantly, a 1st party character doesn't appear to follow 3rd party character "decision rules". For 1st party, it just appears to have to be interesting in gameplay, not popularity. (See Ice Climbers, Pit, Palutena, and Piranha Plant in Smash) Regardless of how easy it is for you to recognize them as an OG or hardcore you are as a gamer,
people who played Smash still didn't know who Samus was. They don't have to make contracts for their own IP, obviously. They literally left a slot open during development for a Pokemon they hadn't decided on yet (see Sakurai 2018 quote below).
I'd argue that DLC FP1 was locked down, and being prepped / iterated on before SSB5 was even released.
That appears to be why Xenoblade and ARMS wasn't represented. I'd argue that Byleth was already known to be coming in game due to how every major worldwide release FE game has a rep. However, I wager for DLC FP2, all bets are off for first party.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a rep from either Xenoblade and/or ARMS. Twintelle pls I also cannot think of a better "final" character with DLC FP2 than Waluigi. He is 1st Party like Byleth, and would be the perfect "final" note of a character. Trolling, derpy, Waluigi.
I can't think of any "rules" for how Nintendo chooses characters. There are probably "guidelines" or something like:
- The character currently must be able to translate well into Smash - with any needed development.
- Popularity helps a character, as long as it has uniqueness.
- Have a game that has come out within a recent timeframe for promotion of said game. (Hence, the FE and Pokemon every generation.)
There are obviously exceptions to this (Ice Climbers and Kid Icarus, for example), but I feel like even how they update some characters (BotW Link), it helps to show this. Nintendo has stated that the profit of a series that gets repped in Smash sees increases dramatically. (Because... of course.)
-
On 3rd party reps:
If you look at the roster, all 3rd party characters do not appear to be solely chosen based on being "badasses", "fits good", or "popularity", but rather be representatives of game franchises, or such influential characters that represent gaming as a whole. I don't think it has much to do with individual companies outside of not wanting to stack multiple IPs from a single developepublisher in the same DLC fighter's pass.
Let's see what each fighter represents to gaming as a whole. - Pac-Man - THE mascot of coin-op pretty much worldwide.
- Sonic - Genre defining. Literally an entire console mascot.
- Ryu / Ken- SFII is granddaddy of fighting games. (I think Ken got in because of his history as the raw, base reference to the very nature of "Player 1 vs Player 2" in a fighting game, otherwise he would have just been an echo fighter.)
- Hero - DQ is the Granddaddy of the JRPG genre, regardless of Japan's inherent love for its success. (Really only a "weak" series in NA.)
- Terry - Neo Geo fighters are often considered as or more popular than Street Fighter II everywhere in the southern hemisphere, and also brought Super Moves into the genre as well as a huge cast and 3v3. Terry might as well be SNK's mascot.
- Snake - MGS (especially for PS1) changed 3D action, voice acting, and story telling as we know it. Also, Kojima.
- Mega Man - Jump-and-shoot man.. perfected. After MM2 came out, everyone tried to copy their formula.
- Belmont - Not even "Genre defining." Literally, Castlevania is more a genre than a game. The whole -vania bit in "metroidvania."
- Cloud - Is there a more played / beloved / sold RPG in the world than FF7?
- Banjo & Kazooie - A love letter to Mario 64, turned into pretty much the template for the modern collect-a-thon game formula.
- Joker - Persona got big, man. Like, real big. In a way, modern Persona reps blends both current modern JRPGs and also the anime style games in a way not done before. Definitely represents the idea that modern games can be not only in the game, but that legacy is not the only reason why a character gets an invite.
Note on Bayo - I consider her a Nintendo IP since they pretty much foot the bill for Bayo 2 to be a thing.
Every 3rd party character on the list represents SOMETHING in gaming larger than just "they are cool." Like, I'd argue that Persona and Banjo are the
weakest (worldwide) 3rd party reps as far as influence on the gaming industry as a whole. And they are HUGELY loved and have a place in gaming history. If you couple that with raw popularity, general look of the character, and expansive move opportunities, its not hard to see why they got in.
So, if there were a set of "guidelines" (?) based on the pattern of 3rd party characters that came before shown above, and what he has said in interviews, I'd argue:
- The character should be the main mascot/representative of a series or genre. There doesn't appear to be a secondary character. (Ken not withstanding due to what he represents.)
- Should have enough unique content or moves in their games to pull from to make the character without changing the nature of the character. (A good example of them making a big deal for that was Sakurai going into how they had exhausted all options for Terry's UAIR, so they made one that fit.) They want the character to keep their unique identity without them interfering.
- The character currently must translate well into Smash with very minor design development from Nintendo. (Also, not be toxic for gameplay.)
I think popularity of a character or series, or how tied to Nintendo, is what can help Nintendo pick a character after the above is met. Sakurai even mentioned that some unnamed characters couldn't be put in the game due to not meeting a mutual business agreement. (Note: I cant find my source. I think it was an "IwataAsks" featuring Sakurai.... like... back from forever ago.)
On indies:
Look at your indie, now back at that 3rd party list - now back at your indie. Sadly, your indie isnt... - ok you get it.
Sakurai does not appear to be against having indies represented, but the total design needs to stand out, more than just artistic design. Cuphead does not have enough varied gameplay to have the some-odd 15 different moves - which is why he is the PERFECT Mii gunner. Sans wouldn't translate over very well as a whole fighter due to the nature of the his game. If the character doesn't have enough to draw on, they might end up developing new moves for the character in a way the developer did not want.
Shovel Knight is a great example here as well. His gameplay is very Zelda 2 and has an assortment of tools, but doesn't offer a unique gameplay "hook" or "gimmick" as a 3rd party character. However, clearly he did well on the ballet, as a character he has great polish, and has great fans, so its a no-brainer to have him as
the indie assist. (I'd have loved to see him regardless.)
These will be a major hurdle as to why I think some characters won't make it or have a significantly harder time getting in.
Arguments for characters:
I don't have much of a horse in this race, so I ain't trying to deconfirm anyone's favorite characters. I'm definitely no expert, nor do I have some kind of inside source. I'm just trying to figure what I believe is reasonable speculation based on what Sakurai has said interviews and put in the game.
1st Party:
- New Pokemon from Sw / Sh
- Waluigi (if he doesn't make it, I'd argue him and Daisy get their own character slots next game)
- Xenoblade
- Waddle Dee (This fanbase is very, very serious.)
- ARMS twintelle pls
- (Note - I'm going to abide by the same 'no repeat franchises' that's been done so far. So no one like Tails or Chun Li, regardless of their legendary status.)
3rd Party:
- Crash - I can't think of a better mascot for the PS1 era than him. Spyro, maybe, but not likely. I never owned a Crash game, but he is super iconic, and everyone knows what his games look like. Anyone old enough to remember PS1 has had the "talk" of who would win Sonic (Dreamcast) vs. Crash (PS1) vs. Mario (N64) in the original Smash64. I'd argue he has the best chance from legacy 3rd party mascots.
- Dante - DMC 1 pretty much created the 3rd person combo genre. He has lots of crossovers#Other_appearances) and would fit in game like Bayo did. On an artstyle / script level, DMC changed the industry. He's on Cloud level as far as icon status and has MGS's level of game dynasty. He wouldn't be a surprise to be added.
- Heihachi - I'd be shocked if a Tekken character didn't get in the game during DLC 2. Specifically Heihachi. Heihachi has "the hair" and great for Namco. If they were to put a straight up 3D fighting game character in game, I'd be it'd be him. While Virtual Fighter changed development viewpoints, Tekken 1-3 changed arcades.
- Phoenix Wright - Honestly, look. He already is in the same fightning game as Dante, but is 3 times as goofy and was one of the most noticable characters on the DS for like.. a decade. Straight up DS royality. I'd say, as long as Nintendo wanted a funny, gag character.
- Geno/Arle/Reimu/Steve - Whew. I want you guys to get your boi/girl. I do. I know you all are the most passionate. But based on what Sakurai has stated for development philosophy, it will be tough. They have things working against them. They don't have something close an existing moveset to draw from. (Example: Imagine what would their *air attacks be? What about UP+B?) If they made it in, it'd be as a gift from from Nintendo to fans and it would be taking a spot from someone else (or each other). I do hope you get your character though, if it is one of these. Really. Never seen a character wanted so badly by the community. (Except maybe Shantae.) Speaking of..
- Shantae - Whether or not you hate her, she's Nintendo indie royalty since 2002. Even Famitsu stated she has a notable following in Japan as far back as 2015. She also has a major rags to riches history with Nintendo (front page mascot of the DSi eShop for a long time), great sales, a kit that might as well come from a Nintendo 1st party game, and even Ken Sugimori from Pokemon plays Shantae. However, I wouldn't think she is a shoe-in by any means just because she's a great mascot. She's technically a great fit in Smash, but she's got much bigger names to beat out to get a spot.
- Rayman - Take a platformer mascot, make his games better over time until his most current one, but the industry doesn't change because of him. His artistic style and platformer history could fit in a platform game, and no matter how excellent a game Rayman Legends is, and boy is it excellent, it hasn't really had much effect on the industry. Another Rayman Legends game though on the Switch... he'd be an A-lister.
- Doom SlayeGuy or Master Chief - Doom and what it did for PC gaming is just... well its Mario levels of legendary. And Chief not only defined the Xbox, but FPS on console as well. (Play Halo 1 compared to Goldeneye, and tell me which one feels like modern granddaddy of FPS.) However, translating FPS to 3D-action-party-fighting-game would be tough. Real tough. On an innovation level alone, what would they use for their canon moveset that has already been in all their other games that meets Nintendo's standards and wouldn't be bland besides "shoot guns" and "generic punch"? I could see one of them in game, but I can't see both of them making it in. Kind of goes against Sakurai's "too similar design space" saying.
- Ryu Hayabusa - His biggest problem is that he is "generic ninja man" and hasn't had a game in a long time. He doesn't rep DoA, and although Ninja Gaiden has a great legacy and I f'n love the games, but he is like the Nathan Drake of ninjas. I'd argue that Strider Hiryu is a more interesting design and kit more suited to Smash. But still. It's Ninja Gaiden.
- Lara Croft - Having a female lead in a game was rare the farther back you go. She might have done well only because of "sex sells" kinds of ads back in the 90s, but she changed the industry from just marketing alone. Not to mention, now she has a dynasty, her reboots are unbelievably good so she is currently relevant. Might have a kit too hard to translate into Smash however.
I wouldn't be surprised if we even have a couple of brand new characters come from nowhere. Lucky from Super Lucky's Tale or maybe a character from Dragalia Lost? Who even knows.
If you want my personal opinion, I'd honestly like to see one or two other franchises get secondary characters. Examples: Tails / Knuckles, Tifa, Chun Li, Zero from Megaman X, etc. So many secondary characters that would honestly be incredible additions.
I hope I didn't step on any toes or come across as condescending. I just wanted to share thoughts and have a discussion.
Do you guys believe there are any characters we will see (or will not see) when looking at what Sakurai says or has implemented previously?
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here we go again
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horse racing odds calculator lucky 15 video
myracing is the home of Lucky 15 tips. Our experts fully research every race to give you the best tips, stats and trends for every race. We also have the latest horse racing tips from every racecourse and the best free bets to get you started. Please gamble responsibly when following our betting tips and read our responsible gambling guidelines for more information. How does a Lucky 15 bet work? A Lucky 15 is named as you have 15 different bets from 4 selections. The bet is then made up of 1 fourfold, 4 trebles with three of the selections, 6 doubles with two of the selections and 4 singles. Some bookmakers will offer an All Winner Bonus if all four selections win which is applied to the total return and/or a One Winner Bonus if just one selection wins. We have you covered from football, horse racing, reality tv and much more! Lucky 15 Calculator Work Out Your Returns ⇒ William Hill Use the Lucky 15 Calculator to work out your potential sports betting payouts. Free to use Mobile friendly bet calculator with William Hill. What is a Lucky 15 Bet? A Lucky 15 Bet is a bet on 4 selections taking part in different events consisting of 4 Singles, 6 Doubles, 4 Trebles and a Four-Fold Accumulator totalling 15 bets. It is similar to a Yankee bet but includes the 4 Single Bets. The “Lucky” part of the name of this bet comes from the practice of offering enhanced odds ... Use the Lucky 15 return calculator to work out your winnings online for all sports. Free, easy to use and mobile friendly bet calculator. Lucky 31 Calculator A ‘Lucky 31’ is a bet across 5 selections – 10 doubles, 10 trebles, 5 singles, 5 four-fold accumulators and 1 five-fold accumulator. Again, one winner gives a return. Lucky 63 Calculator A ‘Lucky 63’ consists of 63 bets across 6 selections – 15 doubles, 10 trebles, 6 singles, 6 five-folds, 15 four-folds and 1 six-fold. The Free Bet Calculator is the most advanced online sports bet calculator, allowing you to calculate the stake and profit for an extensive range of bets. All of the most popular bet types are supported, including Lucky 15, Single, Double, Accumulator, Patent and Round Robin, along with more specialised bets such as Alphabet, Magnificent 7, Union Jack, and the infamous Bookies Nightmare! Lucky 15 bets are often only allowed on horse racing and greyhounds. The Lucky 15 Bet Calculator allows you to calculate the stake, return and profit for Lucky 15s, permed from up to 20 selections if required, with the same comprehensive range of options available to the Free Bet Calculator. Lucky 15 Calculator. Lucky enough to have won on a Lucky 15 bet? You’ll want to work out what you have won and we’ve made that easy. To calculate your winnings, simply use our free Lucky 15 bet calculator below – entering the results of your four selections, preferred odds format and total stake – we’ll then work out your total return and tota Lucky 15 bets are most common with horse racing and football. They can of course be used for anything you can bet on. Horse racing is the most common use of the bet and rightly so, with horse racing you are able to claim the lucky 15 bonus offer from Bet Fred which shouldn’t be missed. Odds vary from sport to sport, race to race. But odds on ...
horse racing odds calculator lucky 15 top
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horse racing odds calculator lucky 15
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